Well, race weekend is here. The Cox Sports Marathon is on Sunday morning, so I’m going to hold a contest of sorts this weekend.
Last year, I won the marathon in 2:43:27, which was pretty exciting.
Going into the race this year, I have 3 goals.
- Break the course record.
- Set the course record.
- Run faster than 2:37:00.
I admit it; I’m a bit single minded.
First, breaking the course record is actually impossible given that it’s a different course. But I want to run faster than that anyway. Saying that I want to break the course record is the same thing as saying that I want to set a personal best. (Breaking the course record sounds better though so that’s what I’m going with.)
I’d also like to set the course record, which is different than breaking it. Setting the course record means that I win the race again. Technically, I can win the race without setting the course record, but in that case I’ll go off the prior argument that new course = new record. I just want to win. (After all, my site isn’t called Run to Dawdle for a reason.)
My actual time goal is to run faster than 2 hours and 37 minutes. I’ll need to average a 5:59.5/mile pace throughout the race in order to do that. (Ideally, I’ll run faster than that.)
A few weeks ago, I discussed the difference in elevation between the old course and new course. Here’s the profiles:
Here is how I ran the race last year (on a slightly different course) and a projection of how I might do this year:
| Mile | 2008 | Prediction | 2009 | Mile | 2008 | Prediction | 2009 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6:05 | 5:40 | 14 | 6:10 | 5:55 | |||
| 2 | 6:08 | 5:51 | 15 | 6:15 | 5:57 | |||
| 3 | 6:10 | 5:51 | 16 | 6:05 | 6:00 | |||
| 4 | 6:09 | 5:51 | 17 | 5:50 | 5:55 | |||
| 5 | 6:03 | 5:48 | 18 | 6:12 | 6:00 | |||
| 6 | 6:19 | 6:04 | 19 | 6:20 | 5:55 | |||
| 7 | 6:08 | 5:50 | 20 | 6:34 | 5:58 | |||
| 8 | 5:55 | 5:55 | 21 | 6:21 | 6:03 | |||
| 9 | 5:59 | 5:55 | 22 | 6:27 | 6:05 | |||
| 10 | 5:58 | 5:55 | 23 | 6:51 | 6:21 | |||
| 11 | 6:00 | 5:56 | 24 | 6:49 | 6:05 | |||
| 12 | 5:50 | 5:57 | 25 | 6:18 | 6:00 | |||
| 13 | 6:06 | 5:58 | 26 | 6:01 | 5:49 |
If I run that, it will bring me through 26 miles in 2:34:34, which is about a 2:35:45 marathon if I run the same average pace for the last 385 yards. Here’s where the contest comes in.
In the comments below, let me know what you think my finishing time will be. Last year, it was about 51° and it rained at the start, remaining overcast. I don’t pay any attention to weather forecasts this far out, so you are welcome to check into that to see how you think it might affect me.
My personal best is that 2:43:27 that I ran last year. I won’t be upset if you think I’m going to go out too fast and then crash and burn, nor will I be super ecstatic if you think I’ll carry forward a strong early pace into an unrealistically fast pace. Make a guess for what you think my time will be, be it honest or pulling a random number out of a hat. You know what I’m going to attempt to do.
What’s the prize going to be? Well, I have no idea. Bragging rights? A little running trinket? A running DVD or gadget? Leave a suggestion for what you think the winner should get; this is pretty informal so I don’t promise anything. Then again, I might just surprise you and award something cool.
Entry Rules
- 1 guess per person, and it must be left in the comments below by Saturday night, EDT. If the comment is left on Sunday (even if it’s right at midnight EDT) then it won’t be eligible.
- If your comment doesn’t appear right away, it probably got moderated, and I may not check the computer to approve it until Sunday night. Don’t worry; I’ll get it.
- You must leave a valid email address in the comment box. It won’t appear on the site; don’t worry.
- Valid entry must include a predicted marathon finish time including hours, minutes and seconds. Optionally, you may also include a prize suggestion for the winner. (Extra imaginary points if it’s creative or funny, but must be something a runner might like to receive.)
- No prize other than recognition is guaranteed, but if there is one I’ll be contacting the winner by email. If it’s something that needs to be shipped, I’ll obviously need a postal address, but I’ll just ask for that in email if it is necessary.
So – guess away! How do you think I’m going to do? Feel free to guess what place I’ll come in, and commentary is also welcome.
Leave a comment in the box below:
2:39:14
Good luck, Blaine!
2:38:30
Have a good time at the race this week. If you wear your electric blue shoes again, you are sure to win.
Prize should be that you list all the running books and DVDs that you might be willing to give away (used is fine) and let the winner pick one.
I predict 2:38:16
Best of luck, Blaine!
Would help to know recent race times, but I think you will run 2:39:45. Hope you get your goal!
OK Blaine, I believe you and am going to prove it by forcasting a 2:36:47. I know the new course is much flatter and you’re going to do great!
Prize suggestion: autographed singlet that you wore when you won the Cox Providence Marathon (washed would be best!).
Best of luck!
John
2:38:45.. have a great race!
2:36:59. I’m choosing that because you have a specific goal, and it’s not unreasonable to expect given you, the course and the conditions.
Prize? I think we get a signed copy of your breaking the tape and, of course, the bragging rights 🙂
Best wishes and run it like you mean it!
Hah hah! I’m thinking of wearing some black Nike’s instead of the Mizuno’s – since I train in my racing flats these days, the Mizuno’s have seen some better days, and I haven’t gotten a new pair of them yet.
As for recent race times, there aren’t a lot of them. I haven’t raced much this year, and this marathon last year was the last one that I did (not counting January’s 50 Miler.)
Here are some relevant links:
+ Last 2 Years Races
+ Complete Marathon & Ultra History
+ Training Log
I have every confidence in you Blaine. My guess is 2:36:59 and a new course record/personal best.
As for the prize, how about a race flyer/brochure or bib number signed by Chuck Engle if he shows up to race this weekend?
Good luck Blaine!
Good Luck! 2:37:00
I hope and believe you will do well … 2:36:27.
Blaine good luck in the race! I predict 2:36:01….!
Blaine – best of luck to you and I think you will do very well. My guess is you are going to hit a 2:39 flat and even tho slightly below what you wanted, its still a remarkable time.
Run Tall — Have Fun
Leave the BLUE SHOES at home……(joking)….
Hi Blaine,
I’m thinking 2:39:26,based on what you and I discussed several weeks ago, still an fast time, very proud of you, best of luck and stay focus.
Harry
2:36:54. Here’s to great races for everyone this weekend! I’m running the Flying Pig Marathon on Sunday myself, hoping for 2:56:xx. It would be a 7-minute PR for me too.
I predict you will run a 2:41:22. You will PR and beat your time from last year. I took your time from the great bay half marathon, doubled it and added 6 minutes. Good Luck!
Mark
2:35:36
Much flatter course even thou you run pretty fast on the hills looking at last years profile, so expecting a more consistent pacing around 5:50 even if you slow to 6:08 towards the end.
Good luck
Good luck. I’ve got faith. I’m thinking you’ll hit
2:35:44
You’re a total overachiever.
Good luck this weekend Blaine. Great job in 2008.
We have assigned you bib number 1.
Conditions are looking good and this is a faster course. And the weather is definitely better!
Regards
Charlie Breagy
Cox Rhode Races
Race Director.
Blaine-
I’ll guess 2:37:12. That’s 6:00.0/mile. I just figured it’s too hard to pace yourself to the last 0.5 seconds, so that will cost you 12 seconds! And you can think of that as making your goal, since it’s just due to rounding error… Good luck.
Al
Good luck in exceeding your goals this weekend
2:36:46
2:39:58
Course is easier, weather will be warmer. You will beat last year and based on your recent half time I think this is where you end up. Have Fun running out front of everyone !!
2:40:12 just a complete prediction! good luck!
2:37:30? Good luck!
You’re the man; I like that stretch goal; I say 2:39:43 coming in third; but I hope I’m way underestimating how you will do and end up on my knees begging forgiveness
2:37:43
is just what run last week. I still need to look up to you blaine. so don’t disappoint me and run faster 😉
I think you PR, but not break the course record: 2:40:12.
2:34’56
Go get ’em!
Have a great race! On Sunday, you da man!
wild guess: 2:39:15
Even though I “Run to Dawdle” I still read your site regularly. I will let you “Run to Win” in my place as I certainly won’t ever see the winners circle. My prediction for your finish is 2:36:13.
Have a great race Blaine!!!!!
2:36:40 – have fun!
Blaine, My best wishes running in my home state. Good Luck… and win!!! My prediction is 2:37:19. I’d love an autographed photo of you winning the race!!! Jan
Thanks for all the predictions, folks! It’ll be a good time no matter what I run. I’m looking forward to putting an update in here.
Just a reminder that you have until tomorrow night to make a guess if you haven’t already.
Best of luck to you, Blaine!!My prediction is 2:40:06.
Bill.
I’ll say 2:40:00. Of course, this is a complete guess.
I’m looking forward to hearing your race report — I came very close to running Providence this year but decided to go with Delaware instead.
I’m going with 2:36:32
For the prize I request you get a huge tattoo of my face, grinning madly, on your right deltoids.
What do you think?
Okay, that’s probably not a good idea.
A DVD or gadget would be fantastic!
Good luck, and go get ’em!!!
For those that think to check here, I ran 2:46 and change. I’d blame blowing up on getting punched in the groin, but I’d already fallen apart at that point (stopping twice to urinate didn’t help either.)
That said, I executed my plan pretty well and just didn’t have it. When you coach yourself, there’s only one person to blame, and I did better than I might have in other circumstances.
I’ll put more of a followup and see who won after I get home tonight; right now I need to go find folks at the finish.
Great job to everybody that ran today, whether it was this race or another one!